MODELS FOR THE WIN OF CDC AND UP IN 2017 PROPOSED

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High School ・Statistics ・MLA

CDC must cooperate with many parties: LP and ANC to win the competition. This means that they gain a margin of 56%. Therefore, after merger with ANC, MDR and other parties, UP would have to lose 44 percent. This is the best model for CDC to be able to win the elections in 2017. UP has to partner with several parties in order once more to win: the LP, ANC, and MDR, which represent 53 per cent of the votes counted. This causes CDC to lose 43% of the votes registered, so CDC has partnership with the rest of the parties, 43%. In this model, UP has to ensure that it merges up with the most number of political parties in the country.

Registered voters	602734		602734		1288716		1288716		1641922
	Voting 2005-1		2005 -2		Voting 2011-1		voting 2011 -2		Voting 2017 -1		voting 2017 -2	possible win for UP
Parties
UP	119341.332	20%	358023.996	59%	554147.88	43%	1168865.412	91%	477799.302	29%	44%	53%
CDC	170573.722	28%	244710.004	41%	421410.132	33%	119850.588	9%	640349.58	39%	56%	47%
LP	83780.026	14%	0	0%	70879.38	6%	0	0%	164192.2	10%	0%	0%
ANC	47013.252	8%	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%	114934.54	7%	0%	0%
MDR	55451.528	9%	0	0%	149491.056	12%	0	0%	114934.54	7%	0%	0%
Others	120546.8	20%	0	0%	154645.92	12%	0	0%	131353.76	8%	0%	0%
Invalid votes	30136.7	5%	30136.7	5%	64435.8	5%	644.358	0%	82096.1	5%	5%	5%

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