MODELS FOR THE WIN OF CDC AND UP IN 2017 PROPOSED

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High School ・Statistics ・MLA

CDC must cooperate with many parties: LP and ANC to win the competition. This means that they gain a margin of 56%. Therefore, after merger with ANC, MDR and other parties, UP would have to lose 44 percent. This is the best model for CDC to be able to win the elections in 2017. UP has to partner with several parties in order once more to win: the LP, ANC, and MDR, which represent 53 per cent of the votes counted. This causes CDC to lose 43% of the votes registered, so CDC has partnership with the rest of the parties, 43%. In this model, UP has to ensure that it merges up with the most number of political parties in the country.

Registered voters

602734

 

602734

 

1288716

 

1288716

 

1641922

       
 

Voting 2005-1

 

2005 -2

 

Voting 2011-1

 

voting 2011 -2

 

Voting 2017 -1

 

voting 2017 -2

possible win for UP

Parties

                         

UP

119341.332

20%

358023.996

59%

554147.88

43%

1168865.412

91%

477799.302

29%

44%

53%

 

CDC

170573.722

28%

244710.004

41%

421410.132

33%

119850.588

9%

640349.58

39%

56%

47%

 

LP

83780.026

14%

0

0%

70879.38

6%

0

0%

164192.2

10%

0%

0%

 

ANC

47013.252

8%

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

114934.54

7%

0%

0%

 

MDR

55451.528

9%

0

0%

149491.056

12%

0

0%

114934.54

7%

0%

0%

 

Others

120546.8

20%

0

0%

154645.92

12%

0

0%

131353.76

8%

0%

0%

 

Invalid votes

30136.7

5%

30136.7

5%

64435.8

5%

644.358

0%

82096.1

5%

5%

5%

 
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